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A drop down to 1075 on the S&P 500 would be a good signal that the trend has changed for the worse. That is just a few points below the bottom of the November-December trading range and would be more than a 50% retracement of the current leg up from the October low.

Until that time, bears have to be patient.

David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital and the renowned successful short-seller of Allied Capital and Lehman Brothers, is worried about Japan and a global currency crisis that it might precipitate. The Land of the Rising Sun is sinking from too much debt and an aging population that's a decade older than ours.

"Should the market reprice the Japanese credit risk, it's hard to see how Japan would avoid government default or a hyperinflationary currency death spiral," he says. And that would probably set off a domino effect for some other currencies.

His recommendation: Buy gold, options on gold and gold stocks as insurance.